How to separate the trend signal from the Covid noise
Black Swan’s new Covid Classifier explained
Break the COVID research paralysis and get your 2021+ innovation pipeline back on track. Covid-19: A perfect storm for Insight and Innovation teams We Brits tend to be rather good at weather metaphors. In the early days of Covid-19, we likened the confusion, uncertainty and sense of darkness that many of us were feeling to being caught in a storm. During this phase, we saw our role at Black Swan Data as using our analysis to help our clients – insights, innovation and marketing professionals – navigate through the choppy waters and ride out the maelstrom. Now, as lockdown continues to ease, the intensity of the storm may be over, but we certainly haven’t emerged blinking into sunlit uplands.
Well, this is embarrassing… I started Black Swan Data because I believed AI applied to big data could help global CPG brands with one of their biggest challenges – uncertainty. Whilst Black Swan was never created to try and predict a pandemic, the name certainly raises some questions when we are faced with what is likely to turn out to be one of the biggest ‘Black Swan’ events of our lives. Hindsight is a powerful thing. That said, what Black Swan do is accurately predict consumer trends, which pandemics will in turn naturally impact and change.
What’s for dinner tonight? Tomorrow? In 2021 and beyond? Our Foods and Meals trend predictions will tell you. For many years, the most popular restaurant meal in Britain was prawn cocktail, followed by steak and chips, with Black Forest gateau for dessert. The heyday of this ‘Great British Meal’ was the 1970s, when specific meals were reserved for special occasions. The meal was sufficiently exotic to seem like a luxury, but familiar enough to be a safe bet.
What a long time eight weeks can be. It’s enough time to lose a stone in weight on the NHS weight loss plan… impressive changes, but they pale in comparison to the changes we’ve seen since we started our Covid-19 webinar series. Consumer conversations, behaviours and trends are shifting so quickly that eight weeks has felt more like eight years. Learn more about our conversation with Mondelez and their perspective on the current climate.
A week may be a long time in politics, but a fortnight can feel like a lifetime in lockdown. Based on our fortnightly COVID-19 reports, which cover both broad societal and category specific topics, it seems that two weeks is the cycle time for change. In this, our third fortnightly webinar, the overriding observation is how consumers are changing from thinking about life after the virus, to finding ways to adapt and live through it.
The Personal Care category has arguably undergone some of the most significant changes throughout the pandemic, with consumer needs and behaviors diverging, having implications on the trends that are likely to disrupt the category, at least in the short to medium term. Discover the impact in this blog.