Welcome to day 3 of Black Swan at Cannes Lions, where we are predicting the awards winners all week from Cabana 4, outside the Palais des Festivals on La Croisette. Today sees awards for Design, Radio and Cyber. Have we got our predictions right?

Our predictions:

Level 1 (using historic winners data) can be seen live in our Cannes Lions app here: http://tenthavenue.blackswan.com/canneslions/#/awards 

And our Level 2 predictions (including today’s social buzz) were presented yesterday.

Today, on day 3, we have broadened out methodology slightly to include more data sources such as YouTube and Facebook. You can read more about that in our previous post.

Our predictions for the today’s Cannes Lions Awards are:

Based on our analysis, our Predictions for the Cannes Lions Cyber Award are:

  • #UNFORGETTABLERIFFS by 89 fm Rock Radio
  • HOLOGRAMS FOR FREEDOM by No Somos Delito



Based on our analysis, our Predictions for the Cannes Lions Design Award are:

  • DEFINE THE DIFFERENCE by Noble Development Public Co.
  • ICONOCONS by McDonald’s
  • JUST by WWF



Based on our analysis, our Predictions for the Cannes Lions Radio Award are:

  • DONATED VOICES by The National University Centre For Organ Transplantation
  • MOM by Directv



We have broadened our search for the answer, and added several more data sources into the mix. You can read more about how we’ve done this in our separate blog post here

In case you missed it yesterday, here is how we worked it out:

Our team of Data Scientists formulated
a Two Level Methodology:

Level 1:

  • We analysed historic nominees + winners data, noting any past successes which may indicate success in 2015
  • We created a statistically informed character profile for each nominee,then used a ‘discrete choice’ approach to infer the winners

Level 2:

  • We enriched the profiles with social data – we called this ‘Lion Watch’, then picked up ‘buzz’ on any nominees we may have considered ‘outliers’ in level 1.
  • Next, we monitored any significant increases in positive mentions, cross referenced with any level 1 inference
  • We predict!

Come back tomorrow for more – we’ll be predicting Design, Product Design, Radio and Cyber Grand Prix.

Follow Black Swan’s predictions, insights and other activity around Cannes Lions 2015 on our Twitter feed:@BlackSwanData

Lara is Communications Manager at Black Swan.