The complex world of Prediction is both an art and a science, so just for fun Black Swan has decided to predict the winners of some of the Cannes Lions Festival awards categories.

We’ve looked at agency activity, social media buzz, who’s attending what, when the best events are, which agencies are on the up, and which aren’t having such a great year, to try and come to a conclusion and a realistic prediction. We don’t have all the answers, but predictions are an important part of what we do and we love to explore the possibilities. We are simply looking at what already exists, and making sense of it.

Our team of Data Scientists formulated
a Two Level Methodology:

Level 1:

  • We analysed historic nominees + winners data, noting any past successes which may indicate success in 2015
  • We created a statistically informed character profile for each nominee,then used a ‘discrete choice’ approach to infer the winners

Level 2:

  • We enriched the profiles with social data – we called this ‘Lion Watch’, then picked up ‘buzz’ on any nominees we may have considered ‘outliers’ in level 1.
  • Next, we monitored any significant increases in positive mentions, cross referenced with any level 1 inference
  • We predict!

Our predictions:

Based on our analysis, our Predictions for the Cannes Lions Direct Grand Prix award are:

  • The Twix Bites #TBT Campaign from Mars Global
  • Footlocker: The Fight Of The Century campaign
  • CVS Health: The Last Pack campaign

 

Based on our analysis, our Predictions for the Cannes Lions Mobile Grand Prix award are:

  • Iamyank ’s Adventures of Poco Eno game
  • Prague Pride’s LGBT Avatars campaign
  • HBO’s campaign for The Sight

 

Based on our analysis, our Predictions for the Cannes Lions Press Grand Prix award are:

  • Converse for their Made By You campaign
  • Henkel for New Will Have To Wait
  • Karma Nirvana for their Suffocation campaign

 

Come back tomorrow for more predictions.

Follow Black Swan’s predictions, insights and other activity around Cannes Lions 2015 on our Twitter feed:@BlackSwanData

Lara is Communications Manager at Black Swan.